Columbia, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

802
FXUS64 KOHX 301728
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

- Severe thunderstorms are a threat tonight into early Monday
  morning with a level 3 out of 5 risk across the area. Damaging
  winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible. The greatest
  risk for tornadoes and large hail is west of I-65.

- Flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible mid to late
  week with a series of weather systems to impact the area. The
  flooding could become significant by late week with some areas
  possibly exceeding 5 inches of rainfall through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Obviously our main concern is the potential for severe weather
tonight, but first a few words about today. Some pieces of
shortwave energy are producing scattered showers. Through the
afternoon, most of the showers will move off to our east, but
there will be weak but sufficient lift and enough instability for
a few (20 to 30 percent coverage) showers or thunderstorms to
bubble up as temperatures warm well into the 70s. Areas west of
I-65 will see cape values climb into the 1500-2000 range by mid
afternoon as deep layer shear values approach 40kt. So, we cannot
rule out a brief severe storm west of I-65 this afternoon, but the
threat will become much greater tonight.

For this evening, stronger shortwave energy will approach along
with a surface cold front. In a wide zone out ahead of the front,
deep south to southwest flow will keep moisture flowing up into
the region with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and
pockets of mid 60s. This will result in widespread capes of
1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will reach 40-50KT and low level
helicity values will be mostly in the 100-200 range. CAMs show
some locally enhanced SRH values as the storms move into our
western counties late this evening, and that is certainly
concerning for tornado potential in our far west.

The greatest cape and lapse rate values will be in place out to
our west this afternoon and early evening, and that is where the
greater threat for discrete supercells with large hail and strong
tornadoes will be located within the zone of strong forcing. That
"all modes" potential will still exist as the forcing and storms
move into our far western counties, but starting around that
time, things will begin a transition toward QLCS or line segments
with damaging winds being the dominant mode along with some
embedded tornadoes. Bottom line, this is a complex balance of
shear and instability with all hazards possible, so everybody
should be weather aware and have multiple ways to receive
warnings. Take warnings seriously and move to your safe place as
quickly as possible if warnings are issued.

The latest timing estimates show our northwest counties under
greatest impact from 9 PM to midnight, Nashville and other areas
along I-65 from 11 PM to 2 AM, and Plateau mainly from 2 AM to 6
AM. These times are just to offer a general idea of the greatest
severe risk. Multiple clusters or lines of storms will be
possible, so check our social media or other reliable sources for
the latest timing updates and details graphics for your location.

There could be some local ponding in heavy downpours, but
thankfully we do not expect widespread flooding tonight. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be mostly 1 to 1.5 inch.

The line of convection is expected to clear the area early Monday
morning with quieter weather then settling in for Monday afternoon.
The trough axis will work through during the late morning and
afternoon and may bring a few pop up showers but they will be low
impact. After seeing highs in the 70s today we will see them fall
back into the 60s for Monday. We will start to get some clearing
Monday night and it will be on the chilly side with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Quiet weather will stay in place on Tuesday as a short wave ridge
moves overhead and a surface high sits to our north. The quiet
weather won`t stick around for long though as we will move into a
rainy and stormy period of weather from Wednesday through the
weekend. A trough will track out of the Rockies Wednesday with a
surface low developing over the Plains. This will push a cold
front into the western part of the area Wednesday evening into
Wednesday night. Once again parameters look favorable for severe
weather and is something to keep an eye on. The threat would
mainly be from around I-65 west.

The cold front will then stall over the region as it bumps up
against a strong ridge centered off the east coast of Florida.
Deep southwest flow along the periphery of the ridge will bring a
series of systems along the stalled boundary resulting in
multiple episodes of rain and storms. Flooding is a growing
concern with parts of the area expected to receive more than 6
inches of rainfall and at least a low chance for more than 8
inches of rain over our northwest counties! Thankfully the severe
storm threat will diminish after Wednesday, but some strong
storms with gusty winds and enhanced downpours could bubble up
from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A strong cold front will move through middle TN late during this
TAF period. TAFs will be MVFR with an occasional VFR this
afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become more frequent
through the afternoon hours before becoming dominate with the cold
front passage. As the thunderstorms increase in coverage MVFR
CIGs and VIS will occur. Towards day break tomorrow morning there
could be some IFR CIGs...especially for the Plateau. With the cold
front overnight there could be some strong to severe storms that
could impact all terminals.

Southerly winds through the majority of the TAF period with gusts
20 to 25 kts. Winds will begin to veer to the southwest after
31/12Z with the FROPA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  65  43  71 / 100  40   0   0
Clarksville    50  62  40  68 / 100  10   0   0
Crossville     57  65  38  67 / 100  90  10   0
Columbia       56  67  40  72 / 100  50   0   0
Cookeville     57  64  39  69 / 100  80   0   0
Jamestown      56  65  37  67 / 100  80  10   0
Lawrenceburg   58  67  40  72 / 100  60   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  67  40  72 / 100  60   0   0
Waverly        50  63  39  70 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....12